England at Euro 2020: A Preview

By Jamie Hemming

The March international break is approaching and therefore it’s a suitable time to explore the state of the English National Team before the rescheduled Euro 2020. This Summer’s competition provides the opportunity for England to win their first European Championship trophy to add to their sole World Cup win in 1966 – for some it’s 55 years of hurt. Excitement around the England team remains, following the joy surrounding the 2018 World Cup semi-final run - a run that recaptured the nation’s interest, whilst aggravating internationally to the tune of it’s coming home.

Aaron Chown/PA

There are many positives when assessing England’s chances of arriving at Wembley for the final. The format of the tournament, celebrating the 60th ‘birthday’ of the Euros, was ambitious from the outset; 51 matches spread across 12 countries, the polar opposite to how the previous year has been spent by the vast majority. These plans appear increasingly ill informed, with England the likely destination if a solo host is selected. Regardless, the semi-final and final will take place at Wembley, as well as England’s group matches, and therefore much of their tournament will have the feel of a home championship, not experienced since 1996. That year it took penalties against Germany to knock out a side containing tournament top-scorer Alan Shearer, Gazza, Tony Adams and current manager Gareth Southgate amongst others. It was Southgate who missed the only penalty in that 6-5 loss – and while Southgate justifiably has his doubters, it would be poetic for him to be the man to finally lead England to European glory.

Getty Images // Hulton Archive

Squad

This England squad is as exciting as it has been since the so called ‘golden generation’, but this time with a squad unity that kept significant success at an arm’s length for those star-studded sides. While the 2018 World Cup squad had a solid foundation, the team arguably over-performed expectation and ability.

The year-long delay in the tournament could play into the hands of a young England squad. In recent years the England youth teams’ successes have rivalled that of any nation. 2017 for example saw England win both the under-20 and under-17 World Cups, as well as the under-19 European Championship. Eight players from those squads have made their full debuts since: Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Fikayo Tomori (U20), Reece James, Mason Mount (U19), Jadon Sancho, Phil Foden, Callum Hudson-Odoi (U17). Just as crucially as those players is the development of the 2018 squad and those who missed out.

England vs Croatia, July 2018

(3-5-2) Pickford, Walker, Maguire, Stones, Trippier, Alli, Henderson, Lingard, Young, Sterling, Kane

That was the line-up for the World Cup semi-final loss.

The goalkeeper position may prove to be one of England’s weaknesses this summer. Jordan Pickford appears likely to retain his starting spot from the World Cup, starting in all of England’s competitive matches in 2020, and only missing out on friendly games against Wales and Ireland. He is trusted by Southgate, but his Everton place has recently come under threat from Swede, Robin Olsen and therefore an opening might appear. Nick Pope is his big rival, enjoying another strong season for Burnley – so far keeping 9 clean sheets and making 98 saves in the process, Pickford comparatively has 5 and 59. Statistics on expected goals conceded (xGC) puts Pope 3rd in the league with +5.9, and Pickford at 5th worst with -2.8 (i.e. Pope has conceded six less goals than would be expected, while Pickford has conceded three more), according to StatsBomb. The gulf goes some way to explain why Pope is the popular pick from fans and pundits alike. His limitations with his feet however mean he’s rarely been preferred to Pickford.

Wildcard options are Manchester United’s Dean Henderson, West Brom’s Sam Johnstone and Newcastle’s Karl Darlow. Darlow has lost his Newcastle place in recent weeks which has led to Johnstone’s recent call up, but with both teams struggling in the table third choice is likely to be their ceiling. Henderson has recently come into United’s side in David de Gea’s absence, but unless he secures consistent game time until the end of the season, he will struggle to convince Southgate.

Question marks over the quality of the defence led to Southgate’s inspired move to three centre-backs in 2018, but individually there have been drastic improvements. John Stones went into the World Cup having made just 18 appearances in Manchester City’s title win. If the tournament had taken place last year, he would have gone off the back off 16 appearances. This time around he’s become a crucial part of the best defence in the league, having conceded just six Premier League goals in 27 hours of football – scoring four in that period himself. Harry Maguire’s strong World Cup performance followed his first season at Leicester, and while his critics remain, he’s currently the captain of a United side who are City’s closest ‘challengers’ for the title. Most importantly, both Stones and Maguire are performing consistently in a back four.

Those two will rightly be favourites to start this summer, with the injured Joe Gomez as their principal threat, but England also have first choice centre-backs vying for European football at Everton (Michael Keane, Ben Godfrey), West Ham (Craig Dawson), Spurs (Eric Dier), and Aston Villa (Tyrone Mings, Ezri Konsa). On top of that Conor Coady has proved himself to be a strong dressing room personality when injury has allowed him to feature internationally, and Fikayo Tomori will also be in contention if he manages to secure a starting spot at title-challenging AC Milan.

The full back situation is also positive. Kieran Trippier and Ashley Young have performed well at European heavyweights Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan respectively, yet it’s possible they could both miss out on the squad. England’s right-back position may be the most competitive in international football. The competition is so immense that Trent Alexander-Arnold, who many considered the best right-back in the world last season, hasn’t made the latest squad and Manchester United’s first choice right back Aaron Wan-Bissaka is reportedly considering representing DR Congo at international level. Kyle Walker also has a fight on for his place even though he plays for the best side in the country. Despite his recent omission, Trent, Reece James and Southgate favourite Trippier’s end of season form will seemingly decide who starts against Croatia on June 13th. At left back the same applies to Luke Shaw and Ben Chilwell, with Shaw the clear favourite on current form. In the future Leicester’s James Justin will also rival them for first choice, however an ACL injury will rule him out this summer.

How the midfield will line-up is Southgate’s most pressing issue, and one that is likely to change throughout the tournament depending on opposition. His decision to deploy two defensive options, even with three centre-backs, has been a major sticking point for fans. Declan Rice and Jordan Henderson offer protection that may be necessary against latter tournament opposition, but England’s embarrassment of riches with regards to attacking midfield players mean that there is scope for some creative flair against lesser teams. (Harry Winks also looks far away from the squad, behind the likes of Kalvin Phillips, Jude Bellingham and James Ward-Prowse, much to my personal relief).

On recent form it’s difficult to argue that Jack Grealish isn’t the first name on the team sheet, bar captain Kane. He’s the creative hub that England sides under Southgate have been desperate for. In January David Moyes even described him as the “best player in the Premier League right now” – hefty praise for the 25-year-old, who had just completed his second of three Championship seasons in 2018. Grealish may need to prove himself in a top side before he’s considered in that bracket, but an international trophy would certainly lend weight to his case.

In recent seasons there has oft been the ‘Grealish v Maddison’ debate, but it’s Phil Foden that rivals Grealish for the most exciting English talent right now – evident in his Man of the Match performance against Liverpool in February. Foden, described by Pep Guardiola as ‘the most talented player I’ve ever seen in my career as a manager’, has already translated his decorated youth-level performances to the senior team, most visibly scoring twice against Iceland in November. During those games he was arguably the most influential player on the pitch and Southgate has already assured fans that he’ll be “fabulous for England for years to come.” He has been regularly rotated for City this season but has proved himself a crucial part of a squad of expensively assembled superstars. Ultimately his game-changing ability means that whether he’s starting or coming off the bench, it’s a safe bet that Foden will be a fundamental component of any potential England success in 2021 and beyond.

Phil Foden, Getty Images

That’s not, however, to neglect James Maddison, who had also been hitting his best ever Premier League form before his injury – scoring in wins against Liverpool and Chelsea to make his case for inclusion after over a year out of the squad (he has yet to add to his first cap against Montenegro). Mason Mount is another candidate, developing on his strong first Premier League season and quickly becoming another manager’s favourite at Chelsea. Mount as already gained 13 England caps, scoring three goals; it’s testament to him that it would be a surprise were he not part of the squad.

Other worthwhile mentions include 2018 starter, Dele Alli but his recent hardships under Jose Mourinho and a missed Paris reunion with Mauricio Pochettino has all but confirmed his place being lost. He has been increasingly involved in recent weeks, however barring an improbable Dele-inspired run that secures Champions League qualification for Spurs, it is unlikely to be enough. The re-emerging Jesse Lingard has further put pay to Alli’s chances, having been a trusted regular under Southgate; Lingard’s World Cup exploits will have inevitably come quickly into his thoughts for his latest recall.

The attack provides fewer starting selection issues with captain Harry Kane locked in (barring injury). Raheem Sterling likewise can be confident of lining up vs Croatia. After a three-year England goal drought between 2015 and 2018, he returned to scoring form with eight goals in seven European Qualifiers. In all competitions this season he’s accumulated 13 goals and 10 assists, often as City’s captain. Jack Grealish has regularly been deployed on the left of the attacking three at Villa, so if Southgate decides to continue with 2 defensive midfielders then he could be the one to complete the trio.

In Germany Jadon Sancho is making his case, the 20-year-old having returned to remarkable form, with 17 goal involvements in his last 14 following an indifferent start to the season. National hero Marcus Rashford can also be confident of retaining in place in the squad, although that is less concrete than it would have been last year, the versatility of alternatives Bukayo Saka and to an extent, Callum Hudson-Odoi make them worth serious consideration. If Harvey Barnes returns to form after his injury he’ll also be in the mix for that final spot.

Marcus Rashford MBE, Burberry

Deputising Kane is one of England’s most intriguing battles. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has proved himself a constant threat, reaching 14 Premier League goals in Everton’s European charge and has been prolific through the England youth setup; his spot in the squad appears secure. Danny Ings has continued his goalscoring form from last season, including that bicycle kick against Wales, although has dropped off during Southampton’s recent collapse. Another injury for Ings has seen Ollie Watkins called-up, Southgate’s press conference cited his pace and ability to run in behind for his selection over Patrick Bamford, who has 13 Premier League goals to Watkins’ 10. Behind them the quality continues with Callum Wilson and Tammy Abraham, on 10 and 12 goals this season respectively – yet both remain outsiders to make the squad.

Formation

How will Gareth Southgate fit all this talent in? He has commonly favoured a 3-4-3, or a 3-5-2, which he used against Croatia. Most fans would be more inclined to a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 given the depth of attacking talent, and hopefully the defensive performances from Stones and Maguire have been enough to convince Southgate that he can trust them without the added safety of the third centre-back.

The upcoming international break will be the clearest evidence of which of these systems the England manager is leaning towards for the summer.

Manager

For Southgate personally this tournament is huge. Lauded for turning on the nation in 2018, anything less than matching the World Cup and reaching the semi-final stage will likely be deemed a failure – England are currently joint-favourites alongside World Champions France and Belgium. England managers in recent history have generally not been considered top-tier managers. While Sven-Göran Eriksson, Steve McClaren, Roy Hodgson were all respected in the game, they were rarely linked to top club jobs. Fabio Capello is the exception to this rule; however, it is clear he was never the right fit given the accounts of former players from that era regarding their shortcomings in 2010.

The England job may be as attractive an opportunity as it’s ever been, and that can only add to Southgate’s pressure to succeed.

Tournament Specifics

England’s group consists of Croatia, Scotland and Czech Republic, playing all at Wembley.

England are likely to arrive in the same curious position they did at the World Cup, in that placing 2nd in Group D would result in a more favourable tie. A 1st place finish would mean facing the runners up of Group F, consisting of Germany, France, Portugal and Hungary, yet a 2nd place finish would mean facing Group E runners up – Spain, Poland, Sweden or Slovakia. Four of the six 3rd placed teams will also progress.

The semi-finals and final will take place at Wembley on July 6th/7th and July 11th respectively. Hopefully Gareth Southgate’s England will be there.

Preferred line-ups:

Jamie Hemming: Pope, James, Stones, Maguire, Shaw, Rice, Henderson, Foden, Sterling, Kane, Grealish

Matt Foster: Henderson, Trent, Stones, Maguire, Shaw, Rice, Mount, Grealish, Sterling, Kane, Foden

Dan Chitty: Henderson, Trent, Stones, Maguire, Shaw, Rice, Mount, Foden, Sterling, Kane, Rashford

Luke Rooke: Pickford, AWB, Stones, Coady, Shaw, Rice, Mount, Grealish, Sterling, Kane, Rashford